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Many performance measures to understand and explore Covid-19 pandemic heavily depend on time due to the nature to the pandemics in general. The analyses we learn in this course exclusively depend on random samples, i.e., independent and identical observations. Hence, this assumption is violated for most statistics.
The measure called Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is defined as the percentage of cases that result in death over all cases . This quantity can be assumed to be constant over periods time, such as over the first wave, over Summer 2020, over the second wave, etc., since it is safe to assume that the treatment methods remained the same over these short periods.
We need two types of CFR: (1) CFR over a period T that covers a range of days (e.g., the two months period starting from April 1, 2020 and ending on May 31, 2020, and (2) daily CFR. The following video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xF2Ihjwbpw describes how to find the CFR over a period. To be explicit, let T ={1,2,…,T} denote the period under consideration, so that period T covers T days. Then, this calculation suggests the following formula:
CFR(T ).
To find the daily CFR, we define CFR(n) as the CFR on day n. Then, the following formula gives the daily CFR values for day n:
CFR(n).
Write a one-page report to address the following points explicitly:
1. Choose two distinct time periods in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. One of them should be the first wave of your country. You are free to choose the second period.
2. Use the data you collected earlier (in case it is not sufficient use more data by giving the corresponding references) to compute the daily CFR values over these two periods. Present the descriptive statistics and plots of these values in the appendix and discuss their implications in the report. Do they constitute a random sample? Why or why not? Exclude some of the data points so that the effect of time on the remaining points is limited. Define the periods that you will analyze by the exact start and end dates, which will be called period 1 and denoted by T 1, and period 2 and denoted by T 2, below. Note that we cannot find a random sample in the first wave, as we discussed in class. Explain your choices and discuss the potential drawbacks of not having a random sample in the subsequent analyses.
3. Find CFR(T 1) and CFR(T 2). Find an estimator for the mean CFR value for each period by using the data. Can you also find an estimator for its variance? Describe how and why you can find it. Explain the assumptions that your analyses require, discuss which of these assumptions are not satisfied by explaining the corresponding reasons, and the potential problems that may arise in your analyses due to these unsatisfied assumptions. You will share the estimators for the mean and standard deviations of the CFR for the first wave with the class in a common google sheet.
4. Assuming that the CFR values constitute a random sample in both periods, compare the CFR values of these two periods using the statistical tools you have learned during the semester. Do you prefer to use the CFR over each period or the daily CFR values in each period? Why? Explain. You may want to perform both analyses and compare their conclusions. What is your final verdict? Is there a significant difference between the CFRs of the two periods? Why or why not? Explain. Make sure that you justify your choices of tools by verifying the underlying assumptions. In case you cannot justify all assumptions, note these as the shortcomings of your method.
Make sure that you enter the estimators for the mean and variance of the CFR values in your chosen country in the first wave into the google sheet by Monday May 24th:
To be submitted on Friday, May 21, 2021.
Many performance measures to understand and explore Covid-19 pandemic heavily depend on time due to the nature to the pandemics in general. The analyses we learn in this course exclusively depend on random samples, i.e., independent and identical observations. Hence, this assumption is violated for most statistics.
The measure called Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is defined as the percentage of cases that result in death over all cases . This quantity can be assumed to be constant over periods time, such as over the first wave, over Summer 2020, over the second wave, etc., since it is safe to assume that the treatment methods remained the same over these short periods. Finding daily CFR values over a period requires additional processing of the data as described in the following video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xF2Ihjwbpw.
Write a one-page report to address the following points explicitly:
1. Choose two distinct time periods in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. One of them should be the first wave of your country. You are free to choose the second period. You should argue satisfactorily that the CFR values constitute a random sample in each period. Find an estimator for the mean CFR value for each period by using the data you collected earlier (in case it is not sufficient use more data by giving the corresponding references). Can you also find an estimator for its variance? Describe how and why you can find it. Justify your assumptions for all your analyses and discuss the possible shortcomings of your methodology. You will share these estimators for the first wave with the class in a common google sheet.
2. Now use the data you collected earlier (in case it is not sufficient use more data by giving the corresponding references) to compute the daily CFR values over these two periods. Present the descriptive statistics and plots of these values in the appendix and discuss their implications in the report. Do they constitute a random sample? Why or why not? Explain.
3. Assuming that the CFR values constitute a random sample in both periods, compare the CFR values of these two periods using the statistical tools you have learned during the semester. Is there a significant difference? Why or why not? Explain. Make sure that you justify your choices of tools by verifying the underlying assumptions. In case you cannot justify all assumptions, note these as the shortcomings of your method.
İşin Yapılacağı Konum: ONLINE
Görevin Başlangıç Tarihi: 21-05-2021
Görevin Bitiş Tarihi: 23-05-2021
Kategori: Ders / Çeviri